On Tuesday (3/6) the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell about 1.54%. While this decline may have left some of you feeling a little rattled, since it has been about 3 months since we experienced a pullback of that magnitude (for the record, 1.54% can hardly be categorized as a move of ‘magnitude’). More than anything, this pullback has helped contribute to a much needed exhale for a market that had reached overbought levels.
Securities and Investment Advisory services offered through NBC Securities, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. Investment products 1) are not FDIC insured, 2) not guaranteed by any bank and 3) may lose value including a possible loss of principal invested. NBC Securities does not provide legal or tax advice. Recipients should consult with their own legal or tax professional prior to making any decision with a legal or tax consequence. This is not an offer to sell or buy any securities products, nor should it be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Thursday, March 1, 2012
View of the World from Jim Roger's Perspective
Last night several guests and I had the honor of attending the “2012 Forecast Dinner” at the Barber Museum, featuring Jim Rogers. Jim is an author, financial commentator and a Guinness Book of World Record holder; earned by circumnavigated the world twice, first on a motorcycle and then in a vehicle. Originally from Demopolis, AL he currently resides in Singapore with his wife and two daughters. He has chosen to live in Asia so that his girls can become proficient in Mandarin. An acquaintance of mine, Jack Willoughby who pens a regular column in Barron’s, was the moderator.
The discussion ranged far and wide so I will summarize several key points:
Global Outlook: Britain was the 19th century power, the United States was the 20th century power and China is/will be the 21st century power. This does not mean that China will have a smooth trajectory as history indicates that no country’s ascension to power is smooth. Despite being a communist country, Jim believes that the Chinese “are the best capitalists in the world”.
Careers: Jim advises against urging our children to pursue MBAs and careers as bond traders in favor of degrees in mining and farming. As anecdotal evidence Jim shared that, within the US, the last smelter was constructed more than 40 years ago and the CO School of Mining is now offering MBAs because of a lack of mining students.
Asset Classes: Bonds are nearing, or are at, the end of a bullish secular cycle. If you must own bonds, only invest in short-term bonds. In his opinion, commodities and hard assets are the asset class to focus on for the long-term. Commodities which Jim views favorably include metals - used for industrial production and agricultural products - needed to feed Earth’s 7 billion people. Desirable hard assets include timber and farm land. He joked that if you want to sell cars “Become the Lamborghini dealer in Kansas or Idaho.”
Currencies: Western currencies are getting de-based by the central bankers. Jim favors holding the Yuan Renminbi for those interested in preserving global purchasing power.
Regulatory: An enhanced regulatory environment courtesy of Bernie Madoff & MF Global has reduced the risk of similar misappropriations and, MF Global CEO Jon Corzine will (or should) go to jail.
The Fed: In Jim’s view, Alan Greenspan & Ben Bernanke have done “nothing right” and the US is on its third Federal Reserve Bank and may one day see a fourth.
US Politics: Jim recently went on record, predicting that Obama will win re-election.
If you would be interested in discussing how we can take advantage of these opportunities or how these outlooks may impact your portfolio, give me a shout (205) 583-3237 or mguilsher@nbcsecurities.com.
Securities and Investment Advisory services offered through NBC Securities, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. Investment products 1) are not FDIC insured, 2) not guaranteed by any bank and 3) may lose value including a possible loss of principal invested. NBC Securities does not provide legal or tax advice. Recipients should consult with their own legal or tax professional prior to making any decision with a legal or tax consequence. This is not an offer to sell or buy any securities products, nor should it be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations.
The discussion ranged far and wide so I will summarize several key points:
Global Outlook: Britain was the 19th century power, the United States was the 20th century power and China is/will be the 21st century power. This does not mean that China will have a smooth trajectory as history indicates that no country’s ascension to power is smooth. Despite being a communist country, Jim believes that the Chinese “are the best capitalists in the world”.
Careers: Jim advises against urging our children to pursue MBAs and careers as bond traders in favor of degrees in mining and farming. As anecdotal evidence Jim shared that, within the US, the last smelter was constructed more than 40 years ago and the CO School of Mining is now offering MBAs because of a lack of mining students.
Asset Classes: Bonds are nearing, or are at, the end of a bullish secular cycle. If you must own bonds, only invest in short-term bonds. In his opinion, commodities and hard assets are the asset class to focus on for the long-term. Commodities which Jim views favorably include metals - used for industrial production and agricultural products - needed to feed Earth’s 7 billion people. Desirable hard assets include timber and farm land. He joked that if you want to sell cars “Become the Lamborghini dealer in Kansas or Idaho.”
Currencies: Western currencies are getting de-based by the central bankers. Jim favors holding the Yuan Renminbi for those interested in preserving global purchasing power.
Regulatory: An enhanced regulatory environment courtesy of Bernie Madoff & MF Global has reduced the risk of similar misappropriations and, MF Global CEO Jon Corzine will (or should) go to jail.
The Fed: In Jim’s view, Alan Greenspan & Ben Bernanke have done “nothing right” and the US is on its third Federal Reserve Bank and may one day see a fourth.
US Politics: Jim recently went on record, predicting that Obama will win re-election.
If you would be interested in discussing how we can take advantage of these opportunities or how these outlooks may impact your portfolio, give me a shout (205) 583-3237 or mguilsher@nbcsecurities.com.
Securities and Investment Advisory services offered through NBC Securities, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. Investment products 1) are not FDIC insured, 2) not guaranteed by any bank and 3) may lose value including a possible loss of principal invested. NBC Securities does not provide legal or tax advice. Recipients should consult with their own legal or tax professional prior to making any decision with a legal or tax consequence. This is not an offer to sell or buy any securities products, nor should it be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations.
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