Wednesday, August 22, 2012

US Manufacturing Renaissance

US manufacturing costs have become much more competitive over the past decade. Lower unit labor costs are driven in part by above-average productivity, globally competitive wages and greater use of technology. US employment gains remain sluggish however, due to outsourcing of lower-cost tasks and labor intensive jobs. Despite US natural gas prices having risen from a low of $2/million BTUs to closer to $3/million BTUs recently, natural gas remains inexpensive and abundant in the US, companies in other parts of the world pay significantly more. A declining dollar has also contributed to making US products more competitive globally. Despite the renaissance of US manufacturing, investors have continued pouring money into bonds versus equities. The ten-year US Treasury bond, currently yielding around 1.5%, generates a negative rate of return after inflation is factored in. This perception of safety creates a false sense of security and results in a loss of purchasing power. From a broad portfolio perspective, our focus is on US equities as they continue to rank as the strongest of the six “big picture” asset classes. (The six asset classes, in descending order of strength, are: US equities, bonds, currencies, international equities, cash and commodities.) When we drill down into US equities, we find that the next level of relative strength is that of Mid-Cap; although Small Cap also deserves some attention. Securities and Investment Advisory services offered through NBC Securities, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. Investment products 1) are not FDIC insured, 2) not guaranteed by any bank and 3) may lose value including a possible loss of principal invested. NBC Securities does not provide legal or tax advice. Recipients should consult with their own legal or tax professional prior to making any decision with a legal or tax consequence. This is not an offer to sell or buy any securities products, nor should it be construed as investment advice or investment recommendations.