Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Big Picture: reversion to the mean & relative strength

Last week, I discussed how the pull-back in early May (mostly on the 6th of May) resolved what had been a generally overbought market; and in doing so has set up better entry points. Realize that a reversion to the mean is healthy and is not unusual when the market experiences a pull-back. Occasionally we see even the strongest ETFs and stocks give initial sell signals. But what is important is the bigger picture -- that of overall trend and relative strength characteristics.

While your holdings did indeed pull-back, the trend and relative strength traits remained firmly positive for most holdings. Those that deteriorated have been sold. In other words, the holdings I have retained still have exemplary relative strength versus their peer group and the market.

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